It’s good to be back with real road racing in Burgos.. but my mind is especially set on this weekend. Finally we can see a great oneday-race again and boys.. it’s going to be a wild one.
Strade Bianche is ofcourse known for the hard gravel roads, but now it’s ridden on the 1st of August (my birthday also) and that changes alot. It’s 30-38 degrees celsius during the race.. making the riders need to hydrate alot, otherwise you can see cramping (Wout van Aert, i;m talking to you!).
Also the roads feel completely different than they do in march.. Kwiato said in an interview that you can compare the gravelroads like riding on snow. Slippery, takes skill. I think we can see some crashes and punctures. Therefor you need to be strong, a good handler and have alot of luck in order to win. Taking these factors in, I can’t justify betting on MvdP or Alaphilippe.. they are really short at the bookies. I can understand why, but they will need luck as well.. and how are they coping with the heat? Alaphilippe will be focussing for the tour, mvdp could already be in big form. Yet, even mvdp can get a flat in the final.. I look to spend my money elsewhere.
why him? Because he won twice, his training rides looked okay and i believe he’s back with a focus on 1day races instead of 1-week stageraces (like he tried in 2019). He is explosive and can win with multiple scenarios.
He is in form according to many.. knows the roads (he’s a local) and it’s just that 151/1 for a guy like Bettiol is very high. He won Flanders in 2019 (got him 101/1 that time) and he didnt steal the victory. He powered up the flanders hill the fastest and soloed to the finish line. He has a great kick, he has a great timetrial and he knows the roads. To get 151 times the money you put on him is insane.
He’s a beast.. very strong rider, never gives up and got a great uphill kick as well. In Paris Nice he was flying.. seems long time ago, but i know for sure he will be in form for this weekend. Its his first time he raced Strade, but that’s okay. Many won on their first time. He could be a double threat in the final with Sagan.
Greg van Avermaet 26/1
This guy was also flying in februari and march.. he looked really strong. He has been on the podium in strade, he could also win it! The fact i also put some money on him at these big odds, is due to the weather. GvA doesn’t mind scorching heat.. this could be a huge factor in the race. Also he looked in really good form with the virtual racing.. producing a lot of watts.
so these are my final picks guys.. i hope i’ve a good birthdayparty and can celebrate it with a big win by one of these picks. FORZA!