Already a nice tour so far, shame about the crashes on first stage though. I didnt have the luck for stage 2, in the end the bookies favourite won as you probably know.
I often wait in GTs for the ‘break-away lottery’ and I really think with the current situation that there are a lot of riders who can join the break safely. Many riders (and climbers) have lost lots of time, so if a good break is formed tomorrow why would they want to chase hard? Alaphilippe is happy in yellow, TJV is happy that DQS has the yellow jersey etc. If somehow it does become a GC day I really like Adam Yates. Don’t forget he put over 1 minute on Pogacar earlier this year on a climb, also if you look at how easy he joined alaphilippe and hirschi yesterday? WOW.
I’m a big slovenian fan, but Adam Yates 10/1 (I got 15/1) is huge. He has a nice sprint as well. Man of the moment it seems to me. Anyway, i still think there is a break, so here are my picks.
Warning i tend to pick a lot of riders, to spread my risks.
Valgren 501 – 0.1pt
Kamna 51 – 0.6pts
Elissonde 251 – 0.2pt
Benoot 81 – 0.5pt
Sicard 501 – 0.1pt
De Marchi 51 – 0.65pt
Hirt 201 – 0.35pt
Zakarin 151 – 0.65pt (it does finish uphill, no descending)
Kreuziger 201 – 0.5pt
Gogl 201 – 0.5pt
Cataldo 151 – 0.5pt
If not from break, than i’m on Yates 15/1 (2pts)
The reason I chose Gogl is that often guys who tried (and joined) a break earlier in the race, are the ones that are more likely to try again. Also it seems he has the KOM jersey in mind.
NTT is out for stages, this could be a nice one for them. Same goes for CCC, they have 3 riders who can win from break in my opinion.
My main pick would be Kämna, winning from break. In the Dauphiné I missed that chance and got him inplay (5/1). He did crash sometimes, but it didnt look that bad. Hell, i think most of peloton crashed somewhere during this race. He is 10 minutes behind and Emu Buchmann is just testing his condition, why would Bora sacrifice a break chance for Kamna?
And even if it will be a GC day, a guy like Kamna might attack (just like stage in Dauphine where Formolo won) himself from favourites group. So you get two chances with a guy like Kamna.
Ah and for Benoot.. i don’t buy the ‘problems’, I think it’s bit of poker and he targeted this stage. Now if he’s in break they won’t pay that much attention to him.
Good luck guys! So far i’m down this tour, but stages like this can turn it around quick.